As Tropical Storm Elsa makes its way quickly across the Atlantic toward the Caribbean, forecasters said Thursday night the already intensifying storm is expected to get stronger in the coming hours.
Elsa is expected to reach the Gulf of Mexico next week, but it's too early to tell if the storm could be a threat to Louisiana.
The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has Elsa entering the Gulf of Mexico early Tuesday on the western side of Florida. However, forecasters said there is "significant" uncertainty in the long-range track.
Elsa is the fifth named storm of the 2021 hurricane season. The categories, in order of increasing strength, are tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane (categories 1 through 5).
Here’s what we know from the National Hurricane Center about the tropics as of 10 p.m. Thursday.
Where is Elsa?
Forecasters said in the NHC's 10 p.m. update that Elsa was moving west northwest at 26 mph, a direction it is expected to continue in for the next couple of days.
It was about 260 miles east southeast of Barbados and had sustained winds of 50 mph, a slight increase in just a handful of hours. Forecasters said they expect Elsa to strengthen even more in the next 12 to 24 hours.
The storm is forecast to move over the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday before it reaches the Caribbean later that night. By Saturday, forecasters said, Elsa will move near the Hispaniola coast and then pass near Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday.
No other tropical depressions or storms are expected to develop in the next 48 hours in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean or the Atlantic.
Watches and warnings
Forecasters said both tropical storm warnings and watches have been issued because of Elsa.
Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. In southern Hispaniola, it could get hit with even more rain producing totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches.
Around 1 to 3 inches, with higher localized amounts of 5 inches, could fall on Puerto Rico.
This rain may lead to flash flooding and mudslides for all three areas.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- Barbados
- Martinique
- St. Lucia
- St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- Grenada and its dependencies
- The southern and western coasts of Haiti from the southern border of the Dominican Republic to Le Mole le St. Nicholas
- The southern coast of the Dominican Republic from the southern border of Haiti eastward to Punta Palenque
- Jamaica
Forecasters said residents should keep monitoring conditions and be on the lookout for additional watches and warnings likely to come late Thursday or Friday.
More on hurricane season
Elsa is the earliest fifth named storm on record, beating out last year’s Eduardo, which formed on July 6, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
After Elsa, the next names available are Fred and Grace. Tropical storms Ana, Bill, Claudette and Danny formed earlier this season, with the third of the four bringing heavy rains and flash flooding to the New Orleans region.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
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