Israeli election: Updated exit polls show Netanyahu bloc just short of majority - Axios

Updated exit polls from two of Israel's main TV networks show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc with 59 or 60 seats, just short of the 61 needed for a majority.

The state of play: The initial projections released when polls closed on Tuesday showed Netanyahu's bloc with 61 seats, which would be enough to form a majority government. The latest results, updated based on the early returns, show a deeply uncertain outcome.

The big picture: Three inconclusive elections have left Israel in a prolonged political crisis. If Netanyahu's bloc does win a majority in Israel's fourth election in two years, he could form the most religious and conservative coalition in the history of the country and potentially take steps to undercut his corruption trial.

• If the broad bloc of anti-Netanyahu parties — ranging from left-wing to conservative — ends up with a majority, there could be an effort to cobble together a government that excludes Netanyahu. That would be very difficult.
• But those parties could potentially pass a law, targeting Netanyahu, to ban anyone under a criminal indictment to serve as prime minister.

Between the lines: Even if the right-wing bloc does get to 61, forming a government could be tricky.

• The 61-seat projection for Netanyahu's bloc includes a conservative party led by former tech entrepreneur Naftali Bennet, who had been trying to position himself as a non-aligned kingmaker but more recently appears to have moved into Netanyahu's column.

Worth noting: Tuesday's election saw the lowest turnout since 2009, and was particularly low among Israel's Arab majority. Parties from the Arab Joint List could see their representation shrink by 40%-50%.

• The radical right-wing “Religious Zionism” list, which includes members of a Jewish supremacist party, is projected to win 6-7 seats.

What to watch: The projections will continue to be updated throughout the night.

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